Methods — Maverick Hightower
Maverick Hightower NHL Projections
NHL · how the number is built

Methods

Every number on the board comes from the steps below, in this order. Each entry says what the thing is, how it is built, and how much to trust it. Two seasons of real prices show no demonstrated edge for any market.

Sample

Sample ratings. On the live site the tables read the model's current ratings file.

Team ratings

{{ through }}

Multipliers on the league average of 1.00. Attack above 1 scores more; defence and goaltending below 1 allow fewer. Net is attack minus defence. Home ice is each team's own effect, roughly a percentage. Tap a column to sort.

Ratings file unavailable.
{{ r.abbr }}{{ r.name }}{{ r.gameLabel }} {{ c.v }}

Defensive ratings

{{ defStamp }}

Goals prevented per game while on the ice, from on-ice expected goals against in the NHL shift charts, adjusted for teammates and opponents. Positive prevents goals; negative allows them. Feeds the lineup step.

Defensive ratings appear once the shift charts are cached

The shift charts are pulled game by game after each night. Until the cache covers enough games, the lineup step uses offence only.
{{ l.title }}
{{ r.rank }} {{ r.player }} {{ r.team }} {{ r.value }}
{{ e.n }}

{{ e.title }}

changed {{ e.updated }}

{{ e.def }}

How it's built

{{ e.build }}

{{ e.formula }}
How sure are we

{{ e.sure }}

Changelog

Every change to the model, with what a reader would see move.

{{ c.date }}
{{ c.what }}
You'd see: {{ c.see }}